In the 1996 film Tin Cup, Kevin Costner portrays Roy McAvoy, driving range pro turned folk hero when he makes an unexpected run at the US Open. Roy’s archenemy is David Simms, played by Don Johnson, plays safe and efficient golf. Roy does not. Roy epitomizes the grip it and rip it attitude, illustrated by a monumental collapse on the final hole of the Open. Roy, in a stubborn attempt to defeat Simms, attempts a near impossible shot—roughly 250 yards, over water, that no player has successfully made—and misses four times, finally sinking the next to impossible shot, for a 12. He ultimately loses the Open, but wins the girl and the battle of boring efficient driven golf.
Last week, the Patriots efficiency driven, passing offense sputtered out and they met defeat. Last Sunday, the NFL’s measure of quaterback efficiency suggests that Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets out performed Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger. However, Roethlisberger Tin Cup-ed. A quarterback’s performance far exceeds the reach of the passer rating.
Check out the passing stats of each QB:
Sanchez appears to have played a highly efficient game. Anyone who cared to watch the game would know that the strip-sack-TD of Sanchez had a substantial negative impact on the game for the Jets. However, “Passer Rating” does not account for this turnover. Nor does it account for the rushing TD Roethlisberger scored in the second quarter. It was worth six points, just like Sanchez’s TDs. Big Ben also had an additional 21 rushing yards. If you account for this additional impact within the framework of the “Passer Rating,” then you get a performance rating that looks like this:
Furthermore, the damage of Sanchez’s fumble had a net effect of leaving the Jet’s QB only worth one TD. This shifts Sanchez’s positive impact on the game further south:
NFL pundits would argue that an average performance would yield a passer rating of about 80. The new performance ratings above pass the “eye test” a bit better. Roethlisberger certainly did not play as abysmally as his passer rating indicates—the sub-Jamarcus Russell level, nor did Sanchez play like he was Steve Young.
Roethlisberger did his best Rory McAvoy. The good ol’ grip and rip. While the stage was not near as large, nor the potential for disaster nearly as atrocious, the Jets’ defense could do little to deny Big Ben when it truly mattered.
Take the game-clinching play. Despite only completing two passes on four attempts in the second half, Pittsburgh spreads the field with five wide receivers on third down and six inside their own territory. The Jets plug the box with about seven defenders, clearly expecting the QB draw. Roethlisberger bootlegs to the right and hits Antonio Brown for 14 yards.
Sure, Pittsburgh could have laid up. An incompletion at that point would have killed the clock and forced the Steelers to punt to the Jets’ rolling offense. Running the ball without making the first down could have bled the clock a bit more, plus the Steelers had run the ball well all night.
It was New England vs. Colts, fourth and two all over again. This time it worked for the team that decided to go Tin Cup.
The question ultimately arises: Will the Steelers maintain their Tin Cup strategy? Can they?
Rory McAvoy, if he were real, would probably be the first to admit that the grip n’ rip strategy is ultimately unsustainable. It leads to frustration and existential crisis. Certain degrees of functioning alcoholism and a nasty case of the yips could and probably would result, if it were applied over the long haul.
A brief and unscientific look at the current accepted measures for efficiency that the NFL uses does not directly reflect performance, nor does it directly correlate to victory.
The only certainty can result from Tin Cup-ping. After Roy sinks his 250 yard fairway wood for a 12, his lady Dr. Mlly Griswold tells him: “It was the greatest 12 of all time. No one's going to remember the Open 10 years from now, who won...but they'll remember your 12! My, God, Roy, it was...Well, it's immortal!”
Now, no one will probably remember this AFC Championship game. Roethlisberger did not exactly toss out a McAvoy 12 either but on the biggest stage there is—the Super Bowl—a moment to lay up or a moment to go for it will probably present itself. The question that Roethlisberger and his opponent, Aaron Rodgers, will ask himself is: Would I rather play it safe, or be immortal?
I think we have an idea what Roethlisberger will do.