“A very happy Mark Carney, now elected to that office,” says the anchor as Canada’s prime minister finishes his address. Elected, but only just. A Conservative talking head tells the panel that “you could slowly feel the air going out of the campaign in the past couple weeks.” He’s referring to the Liberal campaign, which started with talk of 200 seats. Now election day is here, it’s 1:45 in the morning, and the Liberals have just edged up to 166. The nation didn’t flock behind the party, a fact Donald Trump will probably notice.
Canada’s Trump election has turned out to be a wash: no wave for the Liberals, but the Conservatives’ top man was slapped down. Or Canada wants someone other than the Liberal old guard to be running things, and that person definitely can’t be Pierre Poilievre. The Conservative leader lost his seat; meanwhile Mark Carney’s still prime minister and his Liberals have more seats than they did before. On TV the pundits remind each other how amazing this is. By opening his mouth and threatening Canada, Trump took the Liberal Party and made it a going proposition. After nine unsatisfying years in power, the battered old slag (my language) was bleeding out pollwise. But Trump brought on tariffs and talked about a 51st state, and now the Liberal Party is standing upright and retains the keys to the car. But the nation didn’t rally behind it.
Instead the nation held two rallies, and the one for the Liberals was a hair larger. Add up all the nation’s votes, and Canada’s two main parties amassed remarkable totals. As of 1:45 a.m., the score is 43.1 percent versus 41.7 percent, the Liberals’ percentage of the popular vote versus the Conservatives’. For the Conservatives that’s their highest ever; for each party it’s about 10 points higher than they did last time, in 2021. The nation bestirred itself to deadlock the vote again, this time at a higher level of turnout. This year Canada’s in the mood for a decision; it’s just that it didn’t manage to make one.
Judging by Mark Carney’s victory speech (“Stand up to Trump” … “We can give ourselves far more than the Americans can take away” … “When I sit down with Donald Trump”) and Pierre Poilievre’s (no mention of Trump, but 10 minutes in: “unacceptable tariffs from the United States of America”), only one side wants a Mr. Canada, a leader who’ll face down Donald Trump. The other side’s agnostic about the Trump menace and possibly about Canada. But it’s willing to vote too.
The smaller parties, notably the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois, saw voters drain to the Liberals as the Trump menace loomed. But the Conservatives picked up votes of their own. After 11 p.m., the team exclaimed over the new seats the Conservatives won in southern Ontario, the “battleground” (as the map guy put it). That’s when a Liberal majority became a long shot. Three hours later the election panel watched the seat count inch along. Nobody knew if the Liberals would scrape together a majority or struggle on like they usually do, by bumming the votes of those few MPs sitting with the New Democrats.
The team had just been listening to Mark Carney address his party faithful. For an investment banker who parachuted into the leadership of a stricken political party, saw a vision of renewed national spirit appear before him, then saw it vanish, and now must govern during an economic and foreign policy crisis with one shoe, in legislative-majority terms, left untied, the prime minister seemed remarkably upbeat. He ticked through his three values, calling them out to the crowd—humility, ambition, and unity. The roll call required a performer’s skill, since a powerful gimmick ran through it. Humility—“Because it’s Canada after all,” he said, wry. Then ambition: “Because it’s Canada after all,” he said, going steely all of a sudden. Then unity: “Because it’s Canada!” with his voice up, triumphant. Most politicians would have trouble with wry, steely, and triumphant, or any one of them; Carney can riffle through the three and tie them to a little exercise in building national self-image. He ended his talk with another countdown. “When we are threatened,” he called, “we will fight back to protect the interests of Canada. Canada strong! Canada free! Vive le Canada!”
Pierre Poilievre has a voice like a drill and keeps telling Canada about his vision, which is more American-style than the usual up here. Losing his seat won’t dislodge him from public life, or so he indicated on election night: “my purpose in politics is, and continues to be” (cheers); “it will be an honor to continue to fight for you and to champion our” (bigger cheers). A high point came when he kissed his wife (“She’s my rock”); his nose thudded against her cheek, and she frowned and stiffened.