Low Expectations for 2012

By 10 a.m. on Nov. 5, the day after the presidential election, it was all but impossible to find a newspaper in New York City. Every copy of the Times, Daily News, Post and Wall Street Journal had been bought by the legions of tear-streaked, hung-over Barack Obama supporters. The same was true in most of the rest of the country, and by early afternoon, newspapers that had been hemorrhaging readers for years were announcing extra print runs and framed commemorative editions. The election had so engaged Americans that they wanted keepsake editions to remember it. Something peculiar had happened: Politics had become immensely exciting.

For a stretch of nearly two years, the election gave us constant entertainment. When the Writers Guild of America went on strike in late 2007, we switched from Lost to Wolf Blitzer, who chronicled the daily drama of characters like the formidable Hillary Clinton, the underdog Obama, the unpredictable John McCain, the well-groomed Mitt Romney, the plucky Ron Paul and the lifeless Fred Thompson. For comic relief, there was Mike Huckabee’s jokes and Rudy Giuliani’s entire campaign. Then came Sarah Palin, which really put things over the top. We wasted hours at the office checking the scores of daily polls. We learned the meaning of "superdelegate." We wept for Elizabeth Edwards on at least two separate occasions. It was better than HBO.

Don’t expect the same the next time around.

Barring any major scandals or tragedies, Obama will be the Democratic nominee in 2012. Even if he’s not as popular as he is today, it’s all but inconceivable any serious candidates will contest him in the primaries. That means no equivalent of Clinton’s New Hampshire tears or Obama’s candidacy-saving race speech. No debates. No up-to-the-minute delegate counts. About the most exciting thing that could possibly happen is a surprise run by Rod Blagojevich from a federal prison.

On the surface, the Republican race appears more interesting. The governors are already jockeying for position, and even Newt Gingrich, the wily former speaker of the house, looks like he’s considering running. That would be somewhat amusing. Palin may give it a try, though it’s hard to imagine her public image surviving for another three years. If she’s more than a national joke in 2012, it will be a small miracle and a much-needed boon to the race. Romney, the other early frontrunner, is not very colorful. Huckabee is always good for some drama and would presumably bring Chuck Norris along again, but his brand of conservatism has limited appeal in a GOP that will presumably be trying to broaden its tent. Bobby Jindal, the young, Indian-American governor of Louisiana, has the potential for a transformative run. His chances of running, though, are going down with the price of oil because his state’s fortunes are pegged to oil revenues. Besides, he says he’s not interested.

Also, remember how in 2008 the Democratic primary stretched until June while the Republican contest was wrapped up in February? That’s because the GOP awards the winner of each state all of that state’s delegates, guaranteeing a quicker, more lopsided race. The nominee will probably be someone most Americans have never heard of, such as Tim Pawlenty or Mark Sanford. Don’t be disappointed if one of them has the nomination wrapped up by the time Iowa and New Hampshire are finished voting.

Even in the event the primaries are thrilling, the Republicans might put up a sacrificial lamb and save their best candidates for 2016 if the Obama candidacy is going well. Think of Bob Dole, who was clobbered by Bill Clinton in ‘96, or Walter Mondale, who lost every state to Ronald Reagan in ‘84 except Minnesota and the District of Columbia. Although much stranger things have happened, Obama’s re-election campaign likely won’t be too difficult. In the eyes of most Americans, the country can’t go anywhere but up. He has low expectations on his side. Most important, the economy should have turned around by then, and Obama will get the credit.

But who knows? Few saw Obama coming (Giuliani vs. Clinton, anyone?), not to mention Palin. Any number of things could happen between now and Nov. 6, 2012. Stay tuned