Here's the scenario: Senator Obama has raised tens of millions more dollars than Senator McCain, which Democrats think should translate into an advantage in the polls. The economy is doing poorly, which Democrats think should translate into an advantage in the polls given that the Republicans control the White House and the incumbent party is often blamed for a bad economy.
The Republican nominee-in-waiting, Senator McCain, is old and is unpopular with his party's base because he has broken with conservatives on taxes, global warming, torture, and campaign speech limitations. The Democrats think that should translate into an advantage for them at the polls, too, even though their presumptive nominee is several kiloparsecs to the left of Mr. McCain.
Despite all these factors, Mr. McCain is running roughly even in the polls with the presumptive Democratic nominee, Mr. Obama, a time when he is supposed to be way ahead. In early August of 1988, Governor Dukakis was ahead of Vice President Bush by a wide margin. In early August of 2004, Senator Kerry was ahead of President Bush. If Mr. Obama doesn't have a big lead now, it could get pretty ugly for the Democrats as November approaches, the theory goes.
